Last February, the international prices of coffee from El Salvador rose due to effects in the large producing countries, as the Salvadoran Coffee Council (CSC) pointed out in a recent statistical report.
As the first driver of this increase, the CSC highlighted the heavy rains in Brazil, the drop in production and exports from Colombia in recent months, and speculation in the stock markets due to the volatility of the dollar due to fears of a possible recession in the US economy.
In this scenario, and based on the behavior of prices in the last two years, the CSC made an estimate of the behavior of this indicator in the stock market, for the first five months of 2023, between January and May.
A CSC report estimates that, between March, April, and May 2023, coffee prices will remain around $180 per quintal-gold, with a positive trend for the end of May, when prices could reach levels close to $200.
The executive director of this governing institution for coffee growing in the country, Carolina Padilla, stated in an interview for this media outlet, that there were drops in international prices due to speculation in the stock market due to fears of a recession in the United States.
“It was expected that if there was a recession (in the United States), fewer people would be able to buy coffee, which would lower prices, but it is speculative,” the official explained.
However, Padilla affirmed that coffee from El Salvador has a differential of more than $30 and more than $50 over the price of the bag due to its differentiated quality, that is, if the price of the bag is $180, the national coffee it would be trading between $210 and $230.
“Coffee from El Salvador is internationally known for being a high-quality coffee. It is used in around 70–80% of the blends in the world to improve other lower-quality coffees,” she added.
In addition, she said that of an estimated 23,000 producers in El Salvador, around 70% to 80% produce differentiated (high-quality) coffees that are placed on the international market. The CSC counts 69 entities registered to export, including cooperatives, companies, societies, and individual registries.