El Salvador’s Central Reserve Bank (BCR) has officially revised its 2026 economic growth forecast upward, now projecting GDP expansion between 4.5% and 5%. The new target significantly surpasses the institution’s March estimate of 3% to 3.5%, reflecting robust domestic momentum despite ongoing global trade and inflationary pressures.
The revised outlook is anchored by sustained growth across key sectors, most notably construction, industrial production, and tourism. Economic activity consistently gained traction throughout the first half of the year, with the short-term Economic Activity Volume Index (IVAE) reaching 5.2% growth in May and June, contributing to a 4.6% average expansion across the first six months.
The Central Bank attributed this accelerated momentum to “the continuity of dynamic productive activities, foreign investment incentives, improved security conditions, and El Salvador’s growing prominence as a global tourist destination.” Additionally, proactive government measures implemented to safeguard local food security against severe weather conditions helped cushion the economy from external shocks.
This optimistic forecast places the BCR’s expectations ahead of international multilateral organizations such as the IMF and the World Bank. Supported by a strong 4.8% GDP increase recorded in the first quarter, the Salvadoran economy continues to demonstrate resilience, outperforming initial international projections for the year.