The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects a 6.4% increase in El Salvador’s coffee production for the 2025-2026 cycle, estimating a total of 597,000 70-kilogram bags. This marks a rise of 36,000 bags compared to the 2024-2025 forecast.

The growth comes after a difficult season. As of January 2025, El Salvador’s Coffee Institute (ISC) reported a 16.3% drop in harvested coffee compared to the previous year. The USDA attributes the decline to “heavy rains in December 2024,” which caused berries to fall prematurely or dry out on trees.

Despite the expected recovery, the USDA warns that limited credit, rising production costs, and labor shortages continue to affect the sector. Cultivated land has remained stagnant at 118,000 hectares since 2023 due to the “absence of a long-term development strategy.”

Earlier this year, the Salvadoran Coffee Association (Acafesal) also expressed concern over premature flowering caused by erratic rains, which could impact the upcoming harvest if dry conditions persist.