Authorities and security experts have stated that if El Salvador ends the year with a homicide rate below 1.9 per 100,000 inhabitants, it could reaffirm its position as the safest country in the Western Hemisphere, surpassing Canada.
“Part of the effects of having declared and sustained this war, executing strategies every day against these terrorist organizations, is that El Salvador’s homicide numbers have changed drastically,” said Security Minister Gustavo Villatoro. “In 2015, we held the dishonorable first place in the world, with 106 murders per 100,000 inhabitants. Through the Territorial Control Plan, we have achieved a historic reduction.”
Villatoro explained that the state of emergency has also played a key role in achieving this outcome. “In 2021, there were 18.1 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants. By 2022, with nine months under the emergency regime, the rate dropped to 7.8. In 2023, it reached 2.4, and last year we closed with 1.9. Canada, which was once our benchmark, now has higher figures, consolidating El Salvador as the safest country in the Western Hemisphere,” he noted.
According to criminology analyses, Canada is expected to close the year with a rate between 1.3 and 1.9 per 100,000 inhabitants, slightly above El Salvador’s projections for 2025.
Criminologist Ricardo Sosa projected a continued decline. “El Salvador in 2024 is the country with the lowest homicide rate in the Western Hemisphere. Canada will not drop below 1.9, I can guarantee that. For 2025, El Salvador will end with fewer than 100 intentional homicides, once again placing its flag at the top,” said Sosa.
He added that Canada faces an upward trend in its homicide rate, unlike El Salvador. However, Sosa cautioned against overly optimistic forecasts. “Below one per 100,000 is unlikely,” he concluded.